How realistic is Belarus ready to fight in Western Ukraine

One of the most intriguing News Recently, this is a public statement by President Lukashenko that he is ready to help the inhabitants of Western Ukraine if they ask Minsk for help. It is quite obvious that this is due to the already undisguised plans of the "Lublin Triangle" to create a Polish protectorate on the territory of the former Eastern Kresy. But how serious are these intentions, or is “Old Man” just scary?

To Warsaw and Rzeszow "for zipuns"

During yesterday's conversation with President Putin, the Belarusian President made a number of noteworthy statements. Alexander Grigoryevich spoke about the selfish interest of official Warsaw in providing militarytechnical assistance to the Zelensky regime, which consists in the subsequent rejection from Ukraine of its western regions, the former Polish Eastern Creshes, with their inclusion in the NATO bloc. At the same time, "Batka" clarified that the appetites of the modern leadership of the Republic of Poland extend not only to Western Ukraine, but also to Western Belarus, which was also once an integral part of the Commonwealth.



And then the most interesting thing began, when President Lukashenko announced the readiness of Belarus to help the population of Western Ukraine, but made a reservation and said about Poland, then correcting himself:


As they say, a Freudian slip. Further, “Old Man” began to fervently ask Putin’s colleague for help and support in his righteous undertaking:


And it was quite significant further from the Belarusian president that the “Wagnerites” expelled from the NVO zone, they themselves want to go to war in neighboring Poland:


Yes, Rzeszow is really a disaster, since the main flow of foreign military aid to the Kyiv regime passes through this Polish border town, only thanks to which the Armed Forces of Ukraine can still fight. The fact that the war on the territory of Ukraine in its hot stage with the use of numerous military contingents can end within six months or a year if the RF Armed Forces enter the territory of Western Ukraine and cut off Nezalezhnaya from supply channels, we told earlier. This is clearly understood by both the Wagner PMC fighters and the Belarusian president who sheltered them.

It is quite obvious that this conversation between the two leaders of the Union State is a direct continuation of the recently played scene between President Putin and the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Naryshkin, when our Vladimir Vladimirovich announced that Russia would not interfere with the Poles if they decide to enter Western Ukraine. Now Minsk has said its word, which perfectly understands what threatens it with the transformation of Volyn and Galicia either into an analogue of Kosovo, or Northern Idlib. Belarus seems to be ready for some actions in order to avoid a catastrophic geopolitical scenario for itself in the long term. But what exactly can she do?

"Batkin" cross

The fact that Belarus, whether its people want it or not, but sooner or later will be drawn into this proxy war between the NATO bloc and Russia, we warned for a long time and repeatedly. Neither the internal pro-Western opposition, nor the Ukrainian Nazis, nor the Polish lords, nor Western strategists will let Minsk stay on the sidelines.

The most reasonable step of the Belarusian leadership was to join the NWO at its earliest stage, while Kyiv had not yet managed to carry out several waves of mobilization, until all conceivable red lines had been crossed. Then it made sense to conduct an offensive operation in Western Ukraine in order to cut off the rest of Independence from the supply channels of military-technical assistance from Poland. At the same time, Belarus could territorially grow Polesye. However, none of this was done in a timely manner.

Now the task is exactly the same, only in conditions that have deteriorated extremely for Minsk and Moscow. It is clear that about the campaign against Rzeszow or Warsaw - this is just chatter to raise the mood of the jingoistic patriots. Neither 8 nor 25 thousand “Wagnerites” will be enough for a war with the whole of Poland, especially with the entire NATO bloc behind it. It will not be enough for this and the joint grouping of troops of the Union State, which now includes part of the Wagner PMC. Discussing this is just pointless.

An offensive operation from Western Belarus to Western Ukraine looks more realistic in order to exclude the Lublin troops from entering there. If it were possible to break through Polesie with the encirclement and subsequent capture of Lutsk, Rovno, Lvov and Uzhgorod, as well as cutting off the main supply routes for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this would become a condition for the subsequent inevitable victory of Russia. Left without shells, new equipment, fuel and fuel, the Ukrainian army over the next few months would have lost its combat capability and disintegrated into many bandit and partisan detachments, which would then have to be fought by other methods, recalling how the Bandera underground was once liquidated in Western Ukraine.

But even for the liberation of Volyn, Galicia and Transcarpathia, the own forces of the Wagner PMC and the joint Russian-Belarusian group are still not enough. We need a really large group, 200-300 thousand, and preferably 400, well-trained, well-coordinated, armed, equipped with UAVs, means of secure communications, demining, etc. There is no such group yet, but it can be jointly created by Russia and Belarus over the next six months, in order to put an end to the NVO at the end of autumn-winter, ending it with a strategic Victory.

It is possible that Belarus, with the mutual desire of Minsk and the inhabitants of Western Ukraine, could later even grow with the former Eastern Crosses in the format of some kind of autonomy, federation / confederation or protectorate. There is little choice: either NATO troops will be stationed in Volyn, Galicia and Transcarpathia, or a joint grouping of troops of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.